COVID Infections Spike While Deaths Plummet

Recently, media outlets such as the NY TimesCBS News, CNBC, CNN, and even Fox News reported in lock-step that the B.1.617.2 variant of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus which emerged from India (or, the “Delta variant” for short) was responsible for 83% of the new COVID-19 cases in the USA, according to the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta Georgia (“the CDC“).

Gosh, that sounds like really bad news: 83% of anything is big, especially anything bad.

So I thought “Just how bad is this recent spike in COVID-19 due to this new variant?”

Awhile back I wrote about how COVID-19 represents a “Dearth of Death” compared to our history of infectious diseases, and provided this handy chart:

(Click image to enlarge)

Infectious Disease Death Rate, US, 1900-1996, CDC

Compared to history, the COVID-19 death rate is a mere “blip” on the chart: Let’s take a closer look at that “blip”.

The CDC provides a COVID-19 “Data Tracker”, where they show six charts illustrating the COVID-19 the data they’ve collected and chosen to publish.

Slide 1 is “COVID-19 Weekly Cases per 100,000 Population by Sex”
(click image to enlarge)

The average rate of infections per 100,000 population was 23.7 on June 26th 2021 versus  62.25 on July 21st, 2021: This gives us ((62.25-23.7)/23.7)*100% = a 163% increase in reported COVID-19 cases. The same chart shows the maximum infection rate in the USA was 402.5 per 100,000 on Jan. 2nd, 2021: We are currently at 15.6% of that maximum number. Or, stated differently, the recent “spike” is a 84% reduction from the maximum COVID-19 death rate.

A 84% reduction in the infection rate? Now THAT’s a “big number”. And, it’s very good!

Slide 4 is “COVID-19 Weekly Deaths per 100,000 Population by Sex”
(click image to enlarge)

The average rate of deaths per 100,000 population was 0.175 on June 26th 2021 versus 0.055 on July 24th, 2021: This gives us ((0.175-0.055)/0.175)*100% = a 69% decrease in the COVID-19 death rate. The maximum death rate was 6.14 per 100,000 on Jan. 2nd, 2021 – we are currently at 0.9% of that maximum number. Or, stated differently, a 99.1% reduction from the maximum death rate.

A 99.1% reduction in the death rate? Once again, THAT’s a “big number”. Another big GOOD number.

Now, those charts list the infections and deaths for ALL VARIANTS of COVID-19, not just the virus “du-jour” Delta Variant. The CDC announced this new Delta variant accounts for 83% of all new infections, so let’s assume it’s also responsible for 83% of all the new deaths.

But consider: If I’ve done the math correctly, we’re looking at a small number relative to COVID’s peak in the USA back in January 2021. And, remember, compared to past US history the COVID-19 Pandemic was a small number to begin with, so this “spike” the CDC and Biden* government is talking about now is actually a very small percentage of an already very small percentage.

So, how come the Liberal Media, Democrat Government, and dictatorial CDC aren’t headlining the following?

“COVID Infections Spike While Deaths Plummet”

(Note I must add a caveat: Deaths from a contagion will always lag behind the infections, and for COVID-19 the lag is about 14-21 days. The portion of the CDC charts I’ve highlighted cover a period of about three weeks, so it covers that lag. But, if the “spike” continues the death rate could also spike. However, if it does would one expect it to be as bad as January, 2021? Or, as bad as the USA’s previous history with death from infectious diseases?)

Update: Seems I’m not the only one who noticed this: Healthcare Reporter David Hogberg makes a similar observation in the Washington Examiner on August 01, 2021 at 06:22 AM.

Thanks for Reading!

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