As they say in statistics “Correlation does not imply Causation“; or, stated another way, just because two events are observed together doesn’t necessarily mean that one caused the other.
For example, just because your credit rating is bad doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a bad driver (oops… seems almost all insurance companies believe this is true based on statistical studies, so I’ll pick another example)
For example, just because you’ve had to make a life-or-death decision doesn’t mean you think WD-40 is more useful than duct tape – even though 34% of people surveyed thought so.
Of course, this isn’t going to stop prognosticators from drawing correlations, especially during a Presidential Election. So, if you’re tired of reading actual election polls by Gallup, Rasmussen, or Real Clear Politics*, here’s a few “non-traditonal” predictors for your consideration, along with their predicted winner:
| Predictor | How it Works | Advantage? |
| Market Forces | ||
| Astrology – |
United Astrology Conference divines winner based on the heavens | Obama |
| IEM Futures – | Futures traders on Iowa Electronic Markets predict winner | Obama |
| Intrade – | Online gamblers on intrade.com predict winner | Obama |
| Las Vegas Line – | Bookmaker predicts winner | Obama |
| Personal Attributes |
||
| Eye Blinking – | Candidate who blinks the least during the debates wins (FYI: Less blinking correlates to more honesty) | Romney |
| “Freshness Test” – | Fewest number of years between first major political office and President or VP candidacy (ideally, 14 or less) | Romney |
| Last Name Length – | Candidate with longest last name wins | Romney |
| Total Height – | Tallest Presidential Candidate wins | Romney |
| Popularity | ||
| 7-11 Cups – | Most-selected coffee cup wins | Obama |
| “Chia Head” Sales – | Candidate who’s Chia Head sells the most wins | Obama |
| Halloween Masks – | Candidate’s mask with most sales at “Spirit Halloween” stores wins | Obama |
| “Squirrel Nuts” – | Most number of nuts eaten by Gnocchi the Squirrel from each of two identical bowls – one Democrat, one Republican – wins | Romney |
| Cookie Recipes – | Candidate whose wife has the most popular cookie recipe, as determined by “Family Circle“, wins | Obama |
| Scholastic Poll – | Winner of the Scholastic Student Vote | Obama |
| Sports | ||
| “Redskins Rule” – | Incumbent wins if the NFL’s Washington Redskins win home game on the Sunday before the election | Romney |
| World Series League – | If the National League wins the World Series, the Democrat wins | Obama |
| “L.A. Lakers Rule” – | If the L.A. Lakers make it to the NBA Finals, the Republican wins | Obama |
| World Series State – | Whoever wins the state that’s home to the World Series winner wins | Obama |
| “Bama Rule” – | If Alabama beats LSU in college football right before the election, the Democrat wins | Obama |
Based on the “solid science” represented in the above prediction tools, Barrack Hussein Obama beating Willard Mitt Romney in a landslide, 13-to-6. Personally, I think Mitt Romney will actually win tomorrow’s election – did you notice that Obama won “13″ of the contests? Obviously, that’s an unlucky number, regardless of what the myriad of prediction techniques say. After I cast my vote tomorrow, I’ll be looking forward to how all the incorrect pollsters will react to the actual results.
Sources:
- “Obama leads Romney in Chia pet sales, and other odd presidential predictions“, Amy Roberts, CNN News, 11/02/12
- “5 Weird Presidential Election Predictors“, Napp Nazworth, Christian Post Reporter, 10/07/12
- “Odd Presidential Election Predictors“, WLKY.com, 11/01/12
- “Election Prognosticators“, Alyssa Fetini and Frances Romero, Time.com, undated
*Real Clear Politics publishes a “Poll Averages” number, which reflects the average of many individual polls – but, if I may digress, how can this “average” be accurate if many of the polls might have a known, built-in sampling bias?
Thanks for reading!
