A few days before the 2020 Presidential Election a woman I’m acquainted with – a young, intelligent, attractive, driven, loving Mom – expressed concern about all the press proclaiming COVID-19 cases were increasing (which could impact her and her family’s health & schooling), and rumors about the state reverting back to tighter social distancing measures (which could affect her and her husband’s jobs).
I told her not to worry, because the CDC’s Official Data on COVID-19 shows:
(a) the chances of a child between birth and 24 years old dying from a virus originating in a biolab in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China relative to everyone 24 years old or younger is less than 0.0005%, or, about 1% of all causes of death for someone 24 years old or younger, and
(b) based on the CDC’s Official Data, by the time Inauguration Day arrives – Wednesday, January 20, 2021 – the SARS-CoV-2 “Eldemic” would be gone (or, reduced enough in severity to resemble other known seasonal viruses such as flu, pneumonia, etc.), without the need for a partially shutdown economy, potentially dangerous vaccine, mentally challenging social distancing, or impersonal face masks.
Of course, being a concerned parent, she didn’t believe me (she also didn’t believe me when I said I met then-Governor now RINO Mitt Romney at Fenway Park…but I digress), and so here’s a complicated, but potentially helpful chart based on CDC’s Official Data (Click the image to enlarge):
The chart shows the history of the COVID-19 virus since about mid-March 2020, based on the CDC’s own data. To help understand it,
“CLI” means “COVID-like symptoms” as reported by the NSSP,
“ILI” = “Flu-like symptoms” as reported by ILINet,
“PIC” = “Pneumonia, Influenza, and COVID“,
“Confirmed COVID-19 Rate” means the person actually had COVID-19 when admitted to the hospital, and
“Quarantine Effect” = My completely unscientific guess as to how many hospitalizations were avoided by locking down the country.
Confused yet? Note the blank space at the right of the chart is the time between now and Inauguration Day 2021. After studying the chart for awhile I made the following observations, which I placed on the original chart to make it even MORE confusing (Click image to enlarge):
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The chart above combines all deaths due to the Flu, Pneumonia, and COVID-19 into one number, instead of just COVID-19 alone, suggesting to the quick reader that deaths due to COVID-19 are worse than they really are.
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During the initial stage of the COVID-19 outbreak (Weeks 10 thru 15, or mid-March through the end of April) the number of medical visits for the Flu drop dramatically while those for COVID-19 rise sharply, despite the fact that the 2019-2020 Flu Season was one of the worst in recent history.
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Between Weeks 13 and 21 (or, from April 6th to May 24th) “Hospitalization Rate for Confirmed COVID-19 patients” was fairly level, suggesting the self-quarantining and economic lockdown prevented hospitals from becoming overcrowded (the “curve was flattened“). Note I’ve attempted to indicate what might have happened if these steps weren’t taken by scaling down the “%-Combined Deaths (PIC)” curve and fitting it to the level portion. More importantly, it suggests the economic lockdown may have gone on for longer than it should have.
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The chart indicates the rate of positive tests for COVID-19, but not the Flu or Pneumonia, while the “%-Combined Deaths (PIC)” reports all of them combined: This doesn’t provide a clear picture of the percentage of infected COVID-19 patients who died. Showing only the percent deaths due to COVID-19 alone, rather than “%-Combined Deaths (PIC)” would provide a much clearer picture, and the gap between the “%-Combined Deaths (PIC)” and the “COVID-19 %-Positive” lines would be smaller.
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Note for the last week of October 2020 hospital visits for the Flu were up very slightly (as expected), and increasing for COVID-like symptoms, COVID-positives, hospitalizations due to positive COVID-19 tests, but – and most importantly – the COVID-19 Death rate decreased. Also be aware that there’s a 14-day difference between a positive test and most fatalities, and that the numbers could be revised for as long as 4-6 week later, but the trend is encouraging.
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If we draw a trend line through the peaks of the “%-Combined Deaths (PIC)” line we can see that each successive peak is lower (medical researchers have a phrase for this behavior which escapes me right now). And, if we extend this trend to Week 55 – or, the week of the President’s Inauguration, January 20, 2021 – we see that the combined death rate due to the Flu, Pneumonia, and COVID-19 will be below 5 Percent.
Now, I’m not part of the medical community, have no medical or biomedical education or experience, and can’t portend the future: I’m just looking at a top-level chart from the CDC and making observations. The future could be better or worse, as it always is.
That said, my prediction based on all of this? No matter who is sworn in as President on January 20th, 2021 I suspect they’ll be able to announce then or shortly afterwards that COVID-19 no longer represents a critical threat, the economy can fully re-open, and everyone should continue to listen to their Mom’s age-old advice: Wash your hands frequently, cover your mouth when you cough, don’t pick that up off the ground, don’t put anything in your mouth that isn’t clean, don’t hang around sick people, stay away from people if you’re sick, get plenty of fluids and sleep if you are sick, and visit the doctor if you have any concerns.
Just like I’m sure that young, intelligent, attractive, driven, loving Mom is telling her children right now…hopefully, with a lot less concern.
Thanks for Reading!