Happy New Fear! (???)

Last night, while celebrating the end of a disastrous 2021 at my local sports bar, I looked around and noticed a bunch of half-empty champagne glasses.

Now, I could have said the glasses were “half-full”, but that’s the pessimist in me. Still, I’m reasonably optimistic 2022 might be a better year…if only because Democrats, who stand to lose big in the 2020 Midterm Elections, might declare the COVID-19 Eldemic over to help improve their chances of winning. (Or, Democrats could use the COVID-19 Eldemic to lock down the country right before the election and try to win through mail-in voting, as they did in 2020…oops, there’s that pessimist in me again!)

However, for Dr. Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and an Advisory Member of President Joe Biden’s Coronavirus Task Force it’s not “Happy New Year” but rather “Happy New Fear!”: At least if his public statements are any indication.

No wonder some refer to him as “Dr. Doom” and “King of the Virus Hill“.

And despite my basically pessimistic attitude I’ve added an optimistic comment to each of Dr. Osterholm’s rather dire remarks. Because there will always be things to be fearful about, if you allow it: The trick is to not dwell on the past because you can’t change it, don’t worry about the future because you can’t predict it, and control what you can about the present.

2005 July	“This is a critical point in our history. Time is running out to prepare for the next pandemic. We must act now with decisiveness and purpose.” FYI: We can’t possibly prepare for every disaster which could possibly occur: We simply don’t have the resources. And, as nearly all disasters which could occur won’t occur we’d be wasting resources which could be used to solve existing problems we already know about.
2020 March 10th	“SARS had close to 10% case fatality rate. MERS has a case fatality rate of 25% to 35%. The COVID-19 virus has a case fatality rate that is somewhere between seasonal flu in a bad year, which is 0.1%, and the 1918 pandemic, which, of course, preferentially killed young adults with a case fatality rate of 2.5% to 3%. So this is clearly in that range of what would be considered a severe influenza pandemic if this were the influenza virus.” FYI: The Federal Government didn’t close down the economy or declare vaccinations mandatory during the 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic, or for any pandemic, until COVID-19.
2020 November 10th	“Over the course of the next 12 to 14 weeks are likely to be the darkest period in this entire pandemic and that they [Americans] have to take this thing very seriously.” FYI: Sickness is bad, but those who survive have Natural Immunity. The “dark period” isn’t the number of infections, it’s the number of deaths from the infection. And, to date over 98.5% of the world is still alive despite COVID-19.
2021 February 1st	“Imagine where we’re at, Chuck, right now: You and I are sitting on this beach where it’s 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze. But I see that Hurricane 5, Category 5 or higher, 450 miles offshore. And telling people to evacuate in that nice blue sky day is gonna be hard. But I can also tell you that hurricane’s coming.” FYI: This is an incorrect comparison: Hurricanes are by definition destructive, with some literally destroying everything in their path. While deaths from COVID-19 are unfortunate, over 98.5% of the world’s population has survived the pandemic.
2021 March 8th	“You know how many times I’ve woken up in the morning and said, I wonder if today’s the day I could get infected?” FYI: …or get hit by a car? Or shot to death? Or die in a plane crash? Or get food poisoning? Etc. Living in fear isn’t living.
2021 April 8th	“Let me say that, at this time, we really are in a Category 5 hurricane status with regard to the rest of the world. At this point, we will see in the next two weeks the highest number of cases reported globally since the beginning of the pandemic. In terms of the United States, we’re just at the beginning of this surge, we haven’t even really begun to see it yet.” FYI: See my last two comments about Infection vs. Death and Hurricanes vs. Viruses.
2021 September 9th	“…the most important thing we can do is vaccinate, vaccinate and vaccinate and all school teachers, staff support, and parents for that matter, an older siblings should be vaccinated—right now only 32% of those kids, 12 to 17, who could be fully vaccinated are vaccinated, only 32%.” FYI: Kids between birth and 12 years old statistically have the most robust immune systems and by far the lowest rate of infection and death from COVID-19, regardless of variant. Parents should be able to judge for themselves – based on reliable, verifiable, non-biased information – whether to vaccinate their children or not.
2021 August 3rd	“We know today that many of the facecloth coverings that people wear are not very effective in reducing any of the virus movement in or out — either you’re breathing out or you’re breathing in.” FYI: Of course he’s not talking about federally-approved facemasks…which some claim are also ineffective at stopping the spread of the virus.
2021 December 13th	“You cannot run out the game clock on this virus – it will find you if you are not vaccinated or have immunity from previous infection.” FYI: Or, as we’ve learned, even if you’re fully vaccinated: The latest variant – Omicron – appears to be more of an infection of the vaccinated, not the unvaccinated.
2021 December 24th	“It will be a national viral blizzard for the next, what I believe to be two to eight weeks. I hope I’m wrong. Oh my God, I hope I’m wrong. But the speed and relative ease that characterize Omicron’s ability to transmit is simply remarkable. I don’t know how else to describe it. In my 46 year career, I’ve never seen anything quite like this.” FYI: Widespread infection results in herd Natural Immunity, and while being sick isn’t fun it isn’t the number of infections which might be concerning but rather the number of deaths. And even Dr. Osterholm admitted COVID-19 is similar to a bad seasonal flu.
2021 December 30th	“Right now we have a very imperfect situation that’s going to require some very imperfect responses. Over the next three to four weeks, we are going to see the number of cases in this country rise so dramatically that we’ll have a hard time keeping everyday life operating.” FYI: We will only have a “hard time” keeping everyday life operating if governments unilaterally close down everyday living.