“There are few ironclad rules of diplomacy but to one there is no exception. When an official reports that talks were useful, it can safely be concluded that nothing was accomplished.”
  - John Kenneth Galbraith, Liberal Keynesian economist

President Trump recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) negotiated between U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoys Steve Witkoff & Jared Kushner, and Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf & foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif as the mediator.

In 2015 Barack Hussein Obama negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a nuclear deal with Iran. President Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, stating it “…was one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into”. Today, the JCPOA is now regarded as a failure as it immediately removed sanctions and embargoes on Iran and allowed Iran to access billions of dollars while only delaying, not ending, their nuclear weapons program.

President Trump’s MOU isn’t a deal at all: It just defines what they’ll negotiate, what they want to achieve, how long to reach an actual agreement, and what they’ll do in the meantime. As such, something or nothing may result of this Understanding. So, while America and Iran exercise their linguistic legerdemain in an effort to reach legal agreement let’s try and understand why this Understanding has plenty of room to fail.

Below is the full text of the MOU, along with my notes on how the language of diplomacy give each side (but, mostly Iran) plenty of ways to either prevent a deal or fail to enforce one:

Paragraph 1

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing this MOU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operations against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.

“allies” – For the USA it’s Israel. But does this include Hezbollah, Hamas, and the other terrorist groups funded by Iran?

“including in Lebanon” – Iran wants Israel to stop eliminating Hezbollah, the terrorist group Iran uses to attack Israel. Would any deal require Hezbollah to stop attacking Israel?

“Diplomacy is the art of saying ‘Nice doggie’ until you can find a rock.”
  - Will Rogers

Paragraph 2

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

“interfering” – Will this cover any efforts by Iran to interfere with the United States by exporting terrorism to the USA?

Paragraph 3

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.

“mutual consent” – This will never happen: Iran wants to wait out President Trump until either Democrats re-take control, either after the mid-term election or when Trump leaves office, while Trump wants to use negotiations to improve the GOP’s chances of winning the election.

Paragraph 4

Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade, and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of prewar traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

“any disturbances or impediments” – A vague phrase which could mean anything Iran doesn’t like.

“proximity” – Just how far away is far enough away? Keeping US Forces in Saudi Arabia? The Indian Ocean? The Mediterranean Sea?

Paragraph 5

Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements, using its best efforts, for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the needs for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

“best efforts” – This allows Iran to deliberately fail and still claim they tried their best.

“removing…obstacles” – Iran can delay beyond the 30 days by claiming they’re still removing obstacles.

“conduct dialog” – This means another round of negotiations, and allows Iran to blame Oman for any delays.

Paragraph 6

The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

“USD 300 billion” – This is Iran’s money which has been sanctioned, seized, or embargoed based on Iran’s bad actions in the past. Note the Muslim terrorist group Hezbollah has already said Iran will fund them with a portion of that $300M.

Paragraph 7

The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

“terminate all types of sanctions” – This is Iran’s top priority, because it provides the best, fastest way for them to continue paying their military, developing their Nuclear Weapons program, funding & exporting terrorism, and working to destroy Israel.

Paragraph 8

The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned, and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

“under the supervision of the IAEA” – It’s already known that Iran has refused to cooperate with IAEA inspectors and was hiding their work on uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons by locating them in secret underground facilities. There’s no reason to believe Iran wouldn’t continue to do this, and isn’t still doing so.

“satisfactory framework” – Which side is most interested in achieving a “satisfactory” framework? The USA, which seeks to advance world peace by stopping the theocratic Islamic State of Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, exporting terrorism, and eliminating Israel… or, Iran?

“diplomacy, n.: The patriotic art of lying for one’s country.”
  - Ambrose Bierce

Paragraph 9

Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

“additional forces” – The United States will claim that replacing existing forces in the region isn’t adding any forces, while Iran will claim just the opposite and accuse the US of breaking the MOU.

Paragraph 10

The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

“issue waivers” – This essentially removes sanctions prior to actually removing them. Both China & India depend on Iranian oil, and the revenue Iran receives will surely be used to fund & expand their exportation of terrorism.

Paragraph 11

The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiations. Such funds, whether obtaining the original account or transfer, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

“fully available for use” – This is the condition Barack Hussein Obama agreed to in his JCPOA.

Paragraph 12

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.

“monitor the successful implementation” – Iran didn’t allow successful monitoring of their nuclear program unless it was under their terms. Expect Iran to only allow “successful monitoring” of those aspects of the MOU which immediately provide them with revenue.

Paragraph 13

After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

“other paragraphs” – Those would be paragraphs 2, 3, 6-9, and 12-14. So, hostilities would cease, the US blockade ends, Iran opens the Strait, the US waives sanctions on Iran, and frozen funds are released.

“The principle of give and take is the principle of diplomacy – give one and take ten.”
  - Mark Twain

Paragraph 14

The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.

“a binding UNSC resolution” – Iran knows a UN Security Council resolution requires approval of 9 of the 15 Members in order to pass, that the US must abstain from voting because they’re a party to the dispute, and that most of the Council’s current members would vote for Iran. The only way the UN wouldn’t endorse the final deal if one of Council’s permanent members vetoes the resolution – probably Russia or the United Kingdom.

“By unleashing an active diplomacy on its nuclear activities, Iran has effectively neutralized the European and US policies.”
  - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, hardline nuclear proponent and sixth President of Iran who was strongly anti-Israel and anti-West

“Reporting Iran’s dossier to the UN Security Council will be unconstructive and the end of diplomacy.”
  - Ali Larijani, former Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Nuclear Program negotiator, and de facto leader of Iran

Added Bonus! Is History going to repeat itself?

“If the six-nation (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China) forums dealing with Iran and North Korea suffer comparable failures, the consequence will be a world of unchecked proliferation, not controlled by either governing principles or functioning institutions. A modern, strong, peaceful Iran could become a pillar of stability and progress in the region. This cannot happen unless Iran’s leaders decide whether they are representing a cause or a nation – whether their basic motivation is crusading or international cooperation. The goal of the diplomacy of the Six should be to oblige Iran to confront this choice.”
  - Henry A. Kissinger, “The Next Steps with Iran“, July 31, 2006, The Washington Post

“I believe it is peace for our time.”
  - Neville Chamberlain

On September 30, 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, French Premier Édouard Daladier, and German Chancellor Adolf Hitler signed the Munich Agreement, which gave Germany the Sudetenland, a German-speaking region of Czechoslovakia, in return for Germany agreeing not to demand any other part of Europe.

On March 15, 1939 Hitler occupied the Bohemia and Moravia regions of Czechoslovakia, and invaded Poland on September 1, 1939, starting World War II.

Thanks for Reading!